Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey are set to clash for welterweight supremacy. Both are coming off big wins and are highly regarded as top-tier boxers. With a Clottey win, he will finally be given mainstream recognition and hard-earned respect. With a Cotto win, he will prove that he has put his devastating loss to Margarito behind him and it will signal that he is ready to clean out a stacked welterweight division. They are set to meet on June 13 at the Madison Square Garden. Fighting in this venue gives Cotto homecourt advantage.

Miguel Cotto

Cotto is trying to get back on track since brutally losing to Antonio Margarito last year. In his last outing after losing to Margarito, he knocked out Michael Jennings to win the WBO welterweight title. He holds notable wins over Zab Judah and future Hall of Famer Shane Mosley.

He recently had a reported violent dispute with his head trainer and uncle, Evangelista Cotto, during training for the upcoming Joshua Clottey fight. Many boxing experts are considering the fallout with his trainer as a distraction. The transition to a new trainer may affect Cotto’s focus and gameplan. Switching trainers during the most important period of training may lead to confusion on Cotto’s part. We don’t know how Cotto will adjust to the newly hired trainer.

Joshua Clottey

Clottey is an underrated boxer. He has recently beat Zab Judah for the IBF title. In his fight with Margarito, he was leading the first couple of rounds before braking both hands in the fourth round. He then lost rounds five to eleven after that. He is currently riding a 2-year, 5-fight win streak.

According to Clottey, Margarito has laid out the blueprint on how to beat Cotto. Continuously stalk Miguel Cotto and wear him down, then mount an offensive attack to overwhelm him. Unlike Margarito, Clottey has much better defense; so don’t expect him to take a lot punches to the face in the early rounds.

If Clottey will stalk and follow Cotto throughout the fight, Cotto should throw combinations to the head and body. Clottey should be ready to counter Cotto’s attack. If Clottey is able to do this, Cotto will wear down easily. Clottey has above average defense, above average power, above average stamina but weak bones in both hands. Once you break both hands in a sport like boxing, it is not impossible for them to be re-injured during a fight.

Based on the two common opponents they fought, this is how Clottey and Cotto fared:

Against Zab Judah, Cotto won via 11th round TKO. Clottey won via 9th round TKO.

Against Antonio Margarito, Cotto lost via 11th round TKO. Clottey lost via unanimous decision.

Just because Cotto had a harder time with Judah and Margarito doesn’t mean that Clottey will surely win their match-up. Cotto looked fresh and re-energized against his win over Michael Jennings. But there is still reason to be skeptical because Jennings is not a top-tier opponent. Clottey will surely put Cotto to the test. If Cotto has learned from his mistakes in his fight with Margarito, he will aggressively attack the body. Cotto will try and soften the durable Clottey in the earlier rounds then throw combinations in the middle rounds to mix it up.

Keys to victory for Clottey:

1. Wear down Cotto by stalking him in the ring

2. Effectively counter Cotto’s combinations

3. Don’t get too aggressive because Cotto holds an advantage in speed and power

Keys to victory for Cotto:

1. Learn from the Margarito fight and attack the body

2. Establish a jab to keep Clottey from aggressively stalking

3. Survive the early rounds by outboxing Clottey before mounting an offensive attack in the late rounds

Cotto is the favorite in the fight but I wouldn’t be surprised if the underrated Clottey wears down Cotto to score a late TKO ala Antonio Margarito. It all comes down to two things for Miguel Cotto, will he be distracted with the recent turmoil in his camp and has he mentally recovered from the beating he took from Antonio Margarito?

Guess we’ll have to wait ‘til June 13 to find out.